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Disclaimer

 

Most of the information provided in this website comes from numerical weather forecast models.

All climatic and meteorological models are incomplete representations of reality and they cannot apprehend the full complexity of weather systems. All models are of limited resolution and had inherent limitations in simulating the chaotic behavior of weather.

Yet, models are powerful tools and the best available to forecast weather a few days in advance. We made every effort to present the information provided by those models accurately and timely, but we cannot be held responsible for any discrepancy between models and reality.

 

Note on the resolution of the models

GFS50km

GFS model at 0.5° resolution. Red triangle is the position of Everest. Shaded boxes are the model grid cells. Note how a single grid cell cover a very large area and is affected not only by the specific weather on the mountain mountain range, but has also influences from very different regions. This made the GFS too coarse for accurate forecasts. In addition, the surface topography is smoothed, so winds can be underestimate. During the pre-monsoon in the Himalayas, GFS is likely to overestimate precipitation and underestimate wind speed.

WRF01

WRF model at 0.1° resolution. Red triangle is the position of Everest. Shaded boxes are the model grid cells. Note the smaller size of the grid cells and therefore they are more representative of the local weather. While at 10 km the topography is still smooth, winds are more realistic and precipitation is better distributed. A single grid cells of the GFS at 0.5° contains 25 grid cells of the WRF at 0.1°

 

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